Chhattisgarh polls: BJP likely win sans gaining additional seats

Raipur, November 06

While opinion polls are predicting BJP’s one-sided victory in Chhattisgarh, the ground reality is slightly different as both ruling party and principal opposition Congress seem evenly balanced and the latter is likely to pose tough challenge to former in some of the crucial seats. However, the BJP has fair chance of forming government again, though it may not gain additional seats and its total tally may hover around 50, the magical figure that had earned it power in 2008 for second time.

More importantly, there is no chance of hung assembly in State as BSP, SP and the third front led by Chhattisgarh Swabhiman Manch are least likely to upset the poll equations of BJP and Congress.

While closely analysing poll scenario in State’s five divisions, the BJP is likely to gain majority of the seats in tribal belts - Sarguja and Bastar divisions. It will also take edge over Congress in Raipur division. In Bilaspur and Durg divisions, the Congress looks stronger than BJP.

In Sarguja division, there are 14 seats of which the BJP has nine and Congress has five. While BJP can comfortable win seven seats, the Congress can win one. In remaining six seats, the two parties will have tough contest and may get three seats each. The key constituencies will be Bharatpur-Sonhat, Baikunthpur, Pratappur, Lundra, Ambikapur and Sitapur. The BJP can get total 10 seats, a gain of additional one seat while Congress may have to satisfy with four seats by losing one.

In Bastar division, the BJP has 11 out of 12 seats and Congress has one. This time, the ruling party can comfortably post victory in eight seats, but will have to struggle to save remaining three. The Congress, on the other hand, will not only succeed in saving its single seat but can also wrest one from BJP. The crucial seats in the area will be Kondagaon, Antagarh and Bastar. The final tally of BJP and Congress in the region could be 10 and two seats respectively.

The highest number of assembly constituencies is in Bilaspur division, i.e. 24 of which BJP and Congress have 10 and 13 respectively while BSP has one. In this region, the Congress can gain two additional seats by denting the ruling party’s two vulnerable seats. The BJP’s tally, however, may remain unchanged as it can snatch the sole BSP seat as well as one Congress seat.

The constituencies where the BJP and Congress will sweat it out are Korba, Pamgarh, Dharamjaigarh and Janjgir-Champa. In the region, the Congress can enhance its domain by two seats with total 14 while the BJP may remain at no profit no loss situation.

The Congress will also gain lead in Durg division where it has seven out of 20 seats while the BJP has 13. The Congress is likely to frustrate BJP in three constituencies and increase its tally to 10. The key areas will be Dondi Lohara, Gunderdehi, Durg City, Durg Rural, Pandaria, Bhilai Nagar and Kawardha.

Among 20 seats of Raipur division, the BJP has seven while Congress has 13. The ruling party is likely to gain three more seats from the region despite losing a few. Both the parties may win ten seats each in the region. The assembly areas where the two parties will pose challenge to each other are Raipur Rural, Raipur City North, Abhanpur, Mahasamund, Arang, Bhatapara and Kurud.